FIB_RPT

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FIB_RPT - The Fibonacci reporter

This software system gives you the complete Fibonacci Solution. Not only do you get price targets, but price and time. Both price and time projections increase the accuracy of your trading objectives. FIB_RPT automatically scans data files to locate significant highs and lows and generates Fibonacci price retrace and expansion targets, as well as also generating time projections for future market extremes. Other features include the following market statistics: average length of the move in both time and distance, and statistics of accuracy of time projections. Statistics include reverse day stats, Williams day stats, and a combined Williams day and correct direction statistical analysis.

Example of report:

Last record date - 890919 number - 1195 , ck offset - 6 , nodes found - 101
Date day_num high low close

High Pt 890905 1185 a 125% Up move 2760.07 2740.69 2744.68
Reverse day - 1210.9 , Low day - 1196.5
Retraces .382 - 2709.05 .50 - 2693.29 .618 - 2677.54
Expansions COP - 2694.07 NOP - 2653.28 XOP - 2587.28

The report shows last record date as YYMMDD, day #, offset(number of bars used to compute), and the number of nodes found.

High and Low points will then be shown by date, and day number. The reverse day number and the Williams forecasted low (or high) day is also displayed.

Retraces and Expansions are calculated and displayed by the day number of occurrence.

Date day_num high low close
UNCFRM 890915 1193 2681.80 2653.69 2674.58
Reverse day - 1220.5 , High day - 1206.8
Retraces .382 - 2694.33 .50 - 2706.88 .618 - 2719.43
Expansions COP - 2736.22 NOP - 2787.24 XOP - 2869.77

An unconfirmed node is one in which there are not enough days in the data base to validate the projection, based on the offset (# of bars) used to compute it. i.e.: 20 days of data exists in your data base. A low occurred at day 5, a high at day 10, a low at day 15, and a high on day 18. The high on day 18 cannot be confirmed until the data from day 23 is available.

Pending projections date, trading days, calendar days

Williams low 09/20/89 1 1
Williams high 10/05/89 12 16
Reversal day 10/11/89 16 22
Williams high 10/17/89 20 28
Reversal day 10/25/89 26 36
Reversal day 11/13/89 39 55

Pending projections are calculated from the last record date, which is found at the beginning of the report. The projections are given in two columns, the first being the number of trading days from the last record date, and the second being the number of actual calendar days from the last record date.

Average move length in bars
All moves - 11.59, down moves - 8.51, up moves - 14.74
Average swing length in pts
All moves - 134.94, down moves - 121.40, up moves - 148.76

Reverse day stats
Projections = 96 , total success - 63.54%

Bar +|- 0 = 6 , 6.25% 6.25%
Bar +|- 1 = 15 , 15.63% 21.88% Early - 6 40.00% , Late - 9 60.00%
Bar +|- 2 = 17 , 17.71% 39.58% Early - 9 52.94% , Late - 8 47.06%
Bar +|- 3 = 8 , 8.33% 47.92% Early - 1 12.50% , Late - 7 87.50%
Bar +|- 4 = 4 , 4.17% 52.08% Early - 4 100.00% , Late - 0 0.00%
Bar +|- 5 = 11 , 11.46% 63.54% Early - 8 72.73% , Late - 3 27.27%

This section of the report gives you the average move length in bars, and average swing length in points. This is followed by the statistical analysis and the success rate (%) of Reverse day stats, Williams day stats, and combined Williams day and correct direction stats. These are reported in the format of +/- the number of days the event occurred. i.e. +/- 0 would be a direct hit on the projected day. The success rates are calculated in the first column as percentage of occurrences on that day. The second column shows a cumulative running total of the success of the projections, from zero to five days. Percentage of early and late projections are also included. 

Revised on 14 October 2001
1998 - 2001 Tierra del Fuego Ltd.